Risk in Strokes
Expected strokes to hole out from common positions — the math behind every go-versus-lay-up call.
Every "go for it?" is a comparison of expected strokes, not best-case outcomes. Bad misses cost more than great shots gain, which is why the boring play usually wins.
| Situation | Strokes to hole out |
|---|---|
| 150 yd approach from fairway | 3.0 |
| 150 yd approach from rough | 3.3 |
| 100 yd approach from fairway | 2.8 |
| Greenside bunker, 10 yd | 2.5 |
| Green, 30 ft putt | 2.0 |
| Green, 10 ft putt | 1.6 |
| Green, 3 ft putt | 1.05 |
Read it as differences, not absolutes. Fairway to rough at 150 costs 0.3 — real, but small. Getting to a 10-footer instead of a 30-footer saves 0.4. Missing the green into a bunker instead of putting from 30 ft costs 0.5. The strokes that actually wreck a card are the ones off this table: a penalty is +1 before you've hit a shot.
Two rules that follow from it
- The 80% rule. If you can't pull the shot off 4 times in 5, the expected value is negative no matter how good the payoff looks. Play the shot you own.
- Play for the next shot. Lay up to a number you love — a full wedge beats an awkward 40-yarder by more than the 30 yards you gave up.
Precision on the layup number comes from Wedge and Chip Distances; the conditions correction that decides whether the carry is even on comes from Yardage Adjustments.
Related pages
- Yardage AdjustmentsWhat wind, cold, altitude, slope, and rough do to your carry number — and how to stack the corrections before you pull a club.
- Mid-Round FixesSymptom-to-fix table for when a miss pattern shows up mid-round — simplest fix first, one swing thought at a time.
- Know Your NumbersStat targets for a 10- and a 5-handicap, the order to fix leaks in, and how to split practice hours.
- Wedge and Chip DistancesDistance control by backswing length across the wedges, plus carry-to-rollout ratios for chips on a firm green.
- Snowflake Cortex AI: The Big PictureA non-technical orientation to Cortex AI — what it is, why it matters strategically, where the real value is, what it costs, and what to be skeptical about.